The weather remained a key focus this week (ending 27 July 2018) after the South African Weather Service’s seasonal climate watch presented a mixed picture for the next couple of months.
On the one hand, the agency noted that the western coastal regions of the country, which include the Western Cape, could receive above-normal rainfall between August and October. This is a welcome development for winter crop growing areas, following a drought season.
On the other hand, the agency indicated a likelihood of El Niño occurrence in the 2018/2019 summer crop production season, which commences in October. These, however, are still preliminary estimates; we will get clear guidance during the next two months.
In the near term, this will have minimal impact on grain prices as the market is well supplied on the back of a large harvest.
Looking ahead, the data calendar for next week (ending 3 August 2018) is fairly light with no major releases.
Apart from grain and oilseed markets, the SAFEX beef carcass market experienced a quiet week with prices unchanged from levels seen last week (ending 20 July 2018). In terms of beef supply, South African farmers slaughtered 190 454 head of cattle in June 2018, down by 14% from the corresponding period last year (2017). –Wandile Sihlobo
Wandile Sihlobo, head of economic and agribusiness intelligence at Agbiz, shares highlights in his update on agricultural commodity markets. Click here for the full report on agri markets for the major commodities.